Although predicting who will win the Premier League is probably the most popular form of betting on the competition each season, there is an equally robust and competitive market available on which player will eventually end up with the most Premier League goals in the season. This player will then win the Golden Boot, the trophy awarded to the man who fires the most goals across the 38-game season across all 20 clubs.
Mo Salah of Liverpool has won the trophy the past two seasons, although last year he shared the title with team mate Sadio Mane and Arsenal striker, Pierre Emerick Aubameyang. Before that, England and Tottenham star Harry Kane had won it the two years previously, but in his best ever scoring season, when he netted 30 goals, he still finished second to Salah, who netted 32 in his debut season at Liverpool.
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Before we go through our tips for the men to watch out for in the race for the Golden Boot this season in the Premier League, let’s quickly take a look back at who have won that honour over the last decade or so, as well as some of the records held by goalscorers in the EPL.
Leading Goalscorers in the Premier League since 2010
- 2010 – Didier Drogba (Chelsea) – 29
- 2011 – Dimitar Berbatov (Man Utd), Carlos Tevez (Man City) – 20
- 2012 – Robin Van Persie (Arsenal) – 30
- 2013 – Robin Van Persie (Man Utd) – 26
- 2014 – Luis Suarez (Liverpool) – 31
- 2015 – Sergio Aguero (Man City) – 26
- 2016 – Harry Kane (Tottenham) – 25
- 2017 – Harry Kane (Tottenham) – 29
- 2018 – Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) – 32
- 2019 – Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane (both Liverpool), Pierre Emerick Aubameyang (Arsenal) – 22
Highest number of goals in a season
- 60 – Dixie Dean (Everton) in the Football League
- 34 – Alan Shearer (Blackburn) and Andy Cole (Newcastle) in the Premier League.
In contrast to the 34 goals scored by Shearer and Cole back in the early days of the Premier League, the lowest number of goals to win the Golden boot is 18 and this occurred in two seasons in 1997-1998 and then a year later in 1998-1999.
Michael Owen of Liverpool was joint top of the charts in both those years with 18 goals, but shared the trophy with Dion Dublin (Coventry City) and Chris Sutton (Blackburn Rovers) first time around and then Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink (Leeds Utd) and Dwight Yorke (Manchester United) the next season.
Let’s now divide our tips up into two sections, the first are the players that are most likely to challenge for the honour, provided they don’t get injured, suffer a loss of form or get transferred away from their club and secondly, those that are longer odds shot, but who I feel have a good chance of scoring a fair few goals this season for a variety of reasons.
Top Goalscorer Contenders – The Likely Pace Setters
- Harry Kane (Tottenham) – 9/2 favourite
- Sergio Aguero (Man City) – 5/1
- Mo Salah (Liverpool) – 5/1
- Pierre Emerick Aubameyang (Arsenal) – 9/1
- Sadio Mane (Liverpool) – 10/1
- Raheem Sterling (Man City) – 12/1
For me, these six players are the outstanding candidates for the Golden boot. All play for sides that should be in the top six, that score plenty of goals and they play regularly for their team. The one caveat I would add for Aguero here is that at 31, and with his fitness worries, I do see him playing an increasingly reduced role for Man City in the coming years and as such, I think at 5/1, he may not be the best value.
Harry Kane certainly is and at 9/2 he is the sensible bet but he does tend to suffer from recurring injuries with his ankle and that would worry me at that short price. Mo Salah, in contrast has had two injury free years and if he can add a third to that he would be a great choice at 5/1 to land the prize.
I think the smart money may be on Arsenal’s Aubameyang however. He was joint-top last season and I think his record for Arsenal is far better than Lacazette and I think he will start more games for Unai Emery’s team than the Frenchman, however my worry here is whether Arsena will score enough goals for him to be a genuine contender.
I have no doubt Liverpool will and that is why I also feel Mane and Sterling will be real contenders as both have significantly improved their goal output in the last couple of seasons and I feel both have the ability to do the same again this.
In short, with my injury concerns over Kane, I think I’d be backing Mane, Sterling or Salah to land this trophy next season.
Top Goalscorer Contenders – Good Each Way Bets
- Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City) – 33/1
- Tammy Abraham (Chelsea) – 40/1
- Heung-Min Son (Tottenham) – 50/1
- Michy Batshuayi (Chelsea) – 66/1
I think this quartet of players all have a very reasonable shout of doing well next season and could challenge for leading goalscorer honours, although some things may have to happen for that to be the case.
For Gabriel Jesus, I think Sergio Aguero’s age and fitness concerns may see his time more limited for City this season and Jesus has been patient waiting for his opportunity to be the main man. I think this season he will be increasingly involved and as such, if he starts to find the net, he becomes hard to leave out of the team. Given the sheer number of chances City create, I think he will score more this season and if Aguero does go down with injury or loses form or fitness, Jesus could be the man to profit the most from this.
Tammy Abraham and Michy Batshuayi are both on this list, not because I think Chelsea will score lots of goals, but because I think Frank Lampard will know that with just 2 goals last season, Olivier Giroud seems to lack the firepower at the highest level. I think either of these players could earn a regular starting spot up front and whoever does, could benefit from Lampard’s attack minded philosophy.
Lastly, Heung-Min Son is one of the best players Tottenham have but he is a support player for Harry Kane most of the time. However, if Kane does go down with an injury, then it is Son who has stepped up the mark and filled in with goals for Spurs and if this happens again, as has happened to Kane on a couple of times, Son could be the man to deputise and grab a greater share of the goals.
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