Who Will Take an Advantage Into the Carabao Cup Semi-Finals 2nd Legs?

Last weekend was all about the Third Round of the FA Cup and there were shocks aplenty with Arsenal knocked out by Nottingham Forest, Leeds despatched by Newport County and Aston Villa knocked out by Peterborough United. Several ties also finished level which necessitates a replay between the teams including Norwich v Chelsea, Wolves v Swansea and Shrewsbury v West Ham.

However, following on from those FA Cup ties played at the weekend is the Carabao Cup Semi-Finals first leg ties, which pits three top Premier League sides and one promotion-chasing Championship side in a couple of two-legged semi-finals played this week and then in a fortnight’s time. On the line is a place in the Carabao Cup Final at Wembley in February.

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So if you have signed up and you are looking for some top bets on this week’s Carabao Cup action, what are they and how do the odds look with Coral? We shall take a look at this and more as we preview both the big semi-final matches taking place this week.

Tuesday 9^th January – Manchester City v Bristol City (7.45pm)

Stat Attack

• League Position: Man City – 1^st in the Premier League: Bristol City – 4^th in the Championship
• Points: Man City – 62 points from 22 games: Bristol City – 47 points from 26 games
• Goals Scored/Conceded: Man City – 63 scored, 13 conceded: Bristol City – 40 scored, 31 conceded
• Manchester City Likely Starting XI (4-3-3): Bravo, Danilo, Adarabioyo, Mangala, Zinchenko, Gundogan, Toure, Foden, Bernardo Silva, De Jesus, Diaz
• Bristol City Likely Starting XI (4-4-2): Steele, Wright, Magnusson, Flint, Baker, Brownhill, Pack, Smith, Bryan, Paterson, Reid

Road to the Semi Finals

Manchester City

• First Round – Bye*
• Second Round – Bye*
• Third Round – 20^th September – West Brom 1 Manchester City 2
• Fourth Round – 24^th October – Man City 0 Wolves 0 (City win 4-1 on pens)
• Quarter Final – 19^th December – Leicester 1 Man City 1 (City win 4-3 on pens)

(*Manchester City get a bye into the third round of the Carabao Cup as they are participating in European competition this season)

Bristol City

• First Round – 8^th August – Bristol City 5 Plymouth Argyle 0
• Second Round – 22^nd August – Watford 2 Bristol City 3
• Third Round – 19^th September – Bristol City 2 Stoke City 0
• Fourth Round – 24^th October – Bristol City 4 Crystal Palace 1
• Quarter Final – 20^th December – Bristol City 2 Manchester United 1

Match Verdict

Given the relative strength of both these sides and the gulf in class between them, is there any real case you can make for Bristol City being in this tie still for the second leg in Ashton Gate in a fortnight’s time?

Oddly enough, I believe there are. City have despatched four Premier League sides from the competition already this season, including City’s closest rivals Manchester United. So they are not going to be overawed by their opponents.

It is also worth noting that I expect the home side to play a weakened side for this game with key players rested for Sunday’s big Premier League clash with Liverpool at Anfield. That is another factor which could play into Bristol City’s hands as City’s team in the Carabao Cup has been far from convincing with two wins by penalties seeing them progress this far in the tournament.

That said, I still think the home team has more than enough quality to get the game won on the night, but I think Bristol City will score a goal here and I also feel that this tie will not quite be over as I fancy this one to finish 2-1 to the home side and that gives Bristol City a fighting chance back at Ashton Gate in a couple of weeks.

Our Tips

• Match Result – Manchester City to win 1/8 with Coral
• Both Teams to Score – Yes 6/5 with Coral
• Man City to win and both teams to score – 7/4 with Coral
• Man City to win and Under 3.5 goals – 27/20 with Coral

Wednesday 10^th January – Chelsea v Arsenal (8pm)

Stat Attack

• League Position: Chelsea – 3^rd in the Premier League: Arsenal – 6^th in the Prem League
• Points: Chelsea – 46 points from 22 games: Arsenal – 39 points from 22 games
• Goals Scored/Conceded: Man City – 41 scored, 16 conceded: Arsenal – 40 scored, 28 conceded
• Chelsea Likely Starting XI (4-5-1)– Caballero, Rudiger, Cahill, Ampadu, Zappacosta, Drinkwater, Barkley, Willian, Batshuayi, Pedro, Kenedy
• Arsenal Likely Starting XI (4-4-2) – Ospina, Debuchy, Mertesacker, Holding, Kolasinac, Elneny, Coquelin, Ramsey, Walcott, Welbeck, Wilshere

Road to the Semi-Finals

Chelsea

• First Round – Bye*
• Second Round – Bye*
• Third Round – 20^th September – Chelsea 5 Nottingham Forest 1
• Fourth Round – 25^th October – Chelsea 2 Everton 1
• Quarter Final – 20^th December – Chelsea 2 Bournemouth 1

Arsenal

• First Round – Bye*
• Second Round – Bye*
• Third Round – 20^th September – Arsenal 1 Doncaster Rovers 0
• Fourth Round – 24^th October – Arsenal 2 Norwich City 1
• Quarter Final – 19^th December – Arsenal 1 West Ham United 0

(* both Arsenal and Chelsea received Byes into the Third Round of the Carabao Cup due to appearing in European competition this season).

Match Verdict

I would not read too much into the fact that the two Premier League clashes between these two teams this season have finished in draws (0-0 at Stamford Bridge and just a few days ago a 2-2 draw at the Emirates). The reason for that being those games involved full-strength teams for both sides and I believe in this game, both teams will largely play fringe or reserve players in the main.

That of course alters the dynamic of this game quite markedly and as such I think the value of home advantage and the relative strength of each teams squads will likely play a key role in deciding the outcome of the first leg.

In my view, given the strength of the teams played in this competition thus far, I think Chelsea have the stronger team and as such, combined with home advantage, I would be backing them to take an advantage into the second leg. I think it will be a slender advantage, maybe just the one goal or perhaps too, but I do see Arsenal struggling to break down what is a decent Chelsea defence, especially at home.

Our Tips

• Match Result – Chelsea to win 4/5 with Coral
• Both Teams to Score – No 6/5 with Coral
• HT/FT – Draw – Chelsea – 18/5 with Coral
• Chelsea to win and Under 2.5 goals – 4/1 with Coral