Which Top Golfer Will Tame the Terror that is Carnoustie this Weekend?

Mention the 1999 British Open Championship at Carnoustie to anybody other than Paul Lawrie and it is likely you will begin to hear one of golf’s most famous horror stories. The Royal and Ancient had decided, prior to the event, to let the first cut of rough become very difficult to hit the ball out of, with the second cut almost impossible.

Then on the eve of the championship, a storm blew in and made that first cut of rough almost impenetrable and the second impossible, while the course was almost unplayable. Every golfer suffered, with Sergio Garcia in tears at the end of his two rounds as the then young Spaniard was cut from the tournament after posting rounds of 89 and 82. He wasn’t the only one recording horror scores as the tournament almost descended into a farce.

It was somewhat fitting that on the last day, Jean Van de Velde, holding a three-shot lead on the 72^nd and final hole, somehow contrived to post a triple bogey 7 at the last to force a playoff between himself, American Justin Leonard and the Scot Paul Lawrie, whose score of +6 had been posted much earlier in the day.

In the end, it was Lawrie who held his nerve to win the event and he is the last Scotsman to win the Open Championship. Following that event, American golfers christened the course ‘car-nasty’ after the conditions they experienced there.

The amount of criticism the Royal and Ancient received after that tournament has shaped their attitude to British Open’s since and in the 2007 event eight years later, won by Padraig Harrington, the winning score was a much more appealing -7 under, although most golfers still posted an above par score for the 72-holes.

What makes Carnoustie so difficult?

There are a number of factors which makes the Championship Course at Carnoustie so tricky to play well. First off, it is a long course, which now stands at over 7,400 yards in length. It features a number of very tricky par 4 holes that are very long (which amateurs would play as par 5s) as well as a number of difficult par 3’s including the famous 16^th Barry’s Burn, which has a burn running across it for any errant shots.

The contours of the course and greens can also be tricky to deal with. A good tee shot can hit a hillock or mound and bounce left or right to put a player out of position and this can cause players without mental fortitude some real issues. Furthermore, some of the bunkers on the course, including the famous Spectacles bunkers on the 14^th, are amongst the most famous, deepest and most difficult in modern golf.

Then of course there is the issue with the rough which can be manufactured somewhat but it you go too far offline, then you could be in real trouble without any real shot to advance the ball. This means players not only have to be accurate from the tee, but also have a little luck with the bounces and breaks the ball gets on its way down the fairway.

Lastly, there is of course the weather to factor in and when the North Sea decides not to play ball, then it makes all the on-course issues seem trivial in comparison. The good news for players is that the long-range forecast is relatively benign, but even so, there will still likely be a strong offshore wind blowing into the course that will cause players real problems, even in good conditions.

All in all, Carnoustie not just represents a severe test of the top players golfing ability, but also their ability to adapt to the conditions (which can change drastically within the space of five minutes) and also how they keep a lid on their emotions when they feel their good shot has not been sufficiently rewarded.

An added factor this year could well be the fine warm weather Britain has enjoyed leading up to the event will have likely hardened the fairways and greens, meaning that balls will roll much further than normal and greens will likely be much, much faster than usual.

Previous Winners of the British Open at Carnoustie

• 1931 – Tommy Armour (US) (+8)
• 1937 – Henry Cotton (Eng) (+6)
• 1953 – Ben Hogan (US) (-6)
• 1968 – Gary Player (SA) (+1)
• 1975 – Tom Watson (US) (-9)
• 1999 – Paul Lawrie (Sco) (+6)
• 2007 – Padraig Harrington (Ire) (-7)

All events since 1975 hosted at Carnoustie have required a playoff to decide the eventual winner.

The course record at Carnoustie was set only last year in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship when European Tour Champion Tommy Fleetwood posted a sensational 62 (-9). Fleetwood’s incredible achievement on one of golf’s toughest courses was helped by a run of five consecutive birdies from the 11^th to the 15^th holes.

Who will be in the running to win the 2018 British Open this weekend?

If I was looking to pick a winner for this 2018 British Open then I would definitely be looking for a player that is comfortable with Links conditions, but I feel that this may not be quite as important as other years with the weather forecast looking decent for the tournament.

I also feel a player that is accurate from the tee and who also can hit greens in regulation with regularity is going to benefit, even if they leave themselves some tricky long putts on these undulating greens. Placing your ball off the tee is important but hitting the right portions of the green to give yourself a chance of birdie is of even greater importance.

Lastly, you also need a player with strong mental resilience. Links golf can be a test of patience and character, especially when you see a fabulous tee shot hit a small mound and bounce off course into a deep bunker, or into the deep rough. How you can react to this peculiar aspect of links golf is key and the players that keep their calm and composure under this pressure, will likely be the ones to come to the fore I believe.

My first tip would be to back the in-form Henrik Stenson to do well. The Swede has the most wonderful temperament, is long and accurate from the tees and can be a superb putter. He won the event back in 2016 and I think at 30/1, he is a very good each way bet for this year’s tournament too.

Another player perhaps worth an each-way punt is Phil Mickelson. After struggling with links course golf over many years, Mickelson decided to educate himself in this particular form of the game and did so to brilliant effect. He is without doubt one of the best American links players in the world and his record at the Open in recent years stands comparison with any player. At 60/1, he is a fantastic each way bet, especially with bet365 paying out for the top eight places.

Lastly, if you are looking to back a home talent for the tournament and despite the fact that Justin Rose and Rory McIlroy are a shorter price at 16/1, I don’t think you can overlook Tommy Fleetwood at 22/1. The European Tour Champion is the course record holder here and if he can hit that form, he will be a massive threat on a course that clearly suits his game. He also has plenty of experience of links golf, growing up near the great courses close to Southport, Lancashire.