You may recall last week’s article where we looked at the crucial midweek game in the Bundesliga title race between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich and we made the point that a win for Bayern in that game, would all but assure them of an eighth straight Bundesliga title.
Well, Bayern duly ended up on the right end of a 1-0 victory thanks to Joshua Kimmich’s goal, a result, which combined with defeat for Bayer Leverkusen as well as draws for Borussia Moenchengladbach and Red Bull Leipzig, means that Bayern are now seven points clear of Dortmund with just five games to go of the season.
It looks like an unassailable gap between Bayern and the chasing pack led by Dortmund, but there are still plenty of big things to bet on in the Bundesliga over the coming weeks and in this article, we are going to take a look at some of the key issues set to underpin the remainder of the season.
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So if Bayern have all but wrapped up the title, which they could well do if they win their next three games (which we will examine below), what are the other issues still remaining to be sorted in the Bundesliga?
Issue One – When will Bayern win the title?
Seven points clear with just five games to go for most teams (and all those involved in the title race), Bayern are now 1/150 on to win the Bundesliga with bet365 Sport and it is not difficult to see why. After winning the last seven in a row, Bayern could make it eight if they can win any three of their remaining five fixtures.
Bayern’s remaining fixtures:
- Sat June 6 – Bayer Leverkusen (A)
- Sat June 13 – Borussia Moenchengladbach (H)
- Tue June 16 – Werder Bremen (A)
- Sat June 20 – SC Freiburg (H)
- Sat June 27 – Wolfsburg (A)
Three of those games are against top six sides in Leverkusen, Moenchengladbach and Wolfsburg, with Freiburg in eighth spot, but having won 18 of their last 19 games in the Bundesliga, scoring 86 goals and conceding just 28 over all 29 matches, it is hard to see Bayern winning less than three of those games.
My gut feeling is that Bayern will wrap up the title away to Bremen on June 16th and then be presented with the trophy at home before the game with Freiburg the following Saturday.
Issue Two – The Champions League Qualification Spots
There are four Champions League qualification spots up for grabs in the Bundesliga this season and while Bayern Munich will likely take the first of these by winning the league, the remaining three spots will be a battle between four teams.
At the moment Dortmund hold the advantage over Red Bull Leipzig, who are two points behind them, with Borussia Moenchengladbach and Leverkusen two further back than red Bull, with Moenchengladbach ahead of Leverkusen on goal difference. However, each team’s final five games of the season will likely decide who clinches those three crucial Champions League berths:
- Dortmund Remaining Games – Hertha Berlin (H), F.Dusseldorf (A), Mainz (H), Red Bull Leipzig (A), Hoffenheim (H)
- Red Bull Remaining Games – Paderborn (H), Hoffenheim (A), F.Dusseldorf (H), B.Dortmund (H), Augsburg (A)
- Borussia MG Remaining Games – Freiburg (A), Bayern M (A), Wolfsburg (H), Paderborn (A), Hertha Berlin (H)
- Bayer Lev Remaining Games – Bayern Mun (H), Schake (A), FC Cologne (H), Hertha (A), Mainz (H)
The key games in this sequence appear to be the Dortmund v Red Bull Leipzig clash on the penultimate weekend of the season (which I feel will decide which of these two teams finishes second in the table behind Bayern), while both Borussia MG and Bayer Leverkusen both have to face Bayern Munich.
Looking at the fixtures, I do feel Red Bull and Dortmund have the slightly easier run in of the four teams and as such, given they are already ahead of the Borussia MG and Bayer Leverkusen, I would assume that both these teams would qualify, in what order likely depending on the outcome of their clash on June 20th.
As for Borussia MG and Bayer Leverkusen, I think Bayer Leverkusen’s run in is just that bit easier and while the Bundesliga has been unpredictable since the return of fixtures, I do feel they will land fourth spot and ensure Borussia Moenchengladbach are competing in the Europa League next season.
Issue 3 – Europa League Qualification
With the German Cup Final likely to be between Leverkusen and Bayern Munich, it seems likely that teams in 5th, 6th and 7th place in the Bundesliga will qualify for the Europa League next season. We have already stated that the first of these spots will potentially be occupied by Borussia Moenchengladbach, but who will snatch up the other two positions?
Wolfsburg and Hoffenheim lead the way at the moment as both have 42 points and they are four ahead of SC Freiburg and an improving Hertha Berlin, as well as four ahead of the collapsing Schalke 04, who have dropped from 6th to 10th in the table since the resumption of fixtures.
In truth, given the games remaining for each team, it looks likely Wolfsburg and Hoffenheim will claim those spots, Freiburg are too inconsistent and Schalke are in massive decline. Hertha Berlin could be the team to offer the biggest challenge, but being four points behind may be too big a gap to close with just five games to go, especially as Hertha have to face Dortmund, Leverkusen and Borussia Moenchengladbach in their final five games.
Issue 4 – Relegation and the Relegation Playoff
Each season two teams go down from the Bundesliga to the Bundesliga 2, with the team in 16th place entering a playoff with a team from the Bundesliga 2 for a place in the Bundesliga next season. At the bottom Werder Bremen have a game in hand on their rivals (which is to be played this Wednesday night) against Eintracht Frankfurt and given Bremen have picked up seven points from the last nine available, they are battling hard against the drop.
Paderborn are bottom of the table and look destined for the drop as they are nine points from safety and six behind Bremen one place above them. Dusseldorf are now just two points ahead of Bremen but they are just one point behind Mainz. Above them, Union Berlin and Augsburg have 31 points and while not out of it, one win for either team in their last five games should be enough to keep them safe.
For me, the most intriguing thing remaining in the season is whether Werder’s revival in form can see them escape the drop. A win on Wednesday night against Frankfurt could see them move into the playoff spot and out of the automatic drop zone. If they can achieve that, I feel they will stay up.
As such, I think Dusseldorf will be relegated with Paderborn with Mainz being the team to enter the playoff.
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