There is no doubt that one of the most popular bets with football punters this season has been on which team will win the Premier League title next summer. Liverpool and Manchester City were the two teams that dominated the market, as they have done the past three years, but after the last weekend, we have seen a big change in odds.
Injuries to Liverpool’s two most expensive defensive players, keeper Alisson Becker who is out for around six to eight weeks, and now defender Virgil van Dijk, who is though to be likely out for the rest of the season, has seen the odds on the Reds lengthen considerably. So in this article, we are going to examine whether those odds are accurate and what the Reds chances are of claiming the league title once again in May.
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Let’s now take a look at just how much Virgil van Dijk’s injury for the Reds, ruling him out for at least most, if not all, the season has impacted on their chances to defend the Premier League title they won in spectacular fashion last season.
Liverpool’s Title Chances
After wins over Arsenal, Chelsea and Leeds United in their opening three games, combined with surprise defeats for many of their main title rivals, Liverpool’s title chance prices shortened considerably, but then things began to go awry.
A 7-2 humiliation against Aston Villa followed and then after the international break, the Reds faced a Merseyside derby against top of the table Everton. In a controversial game, which saw Liverpool denied a last minute winner due to a VAR offside decision which was barely credible to say the least, the most controversial moment came early in the game when Everton keeper Jordan Pickford clattered into van Dijk for a clear foul in the penalty box.
In that tackle, which went entirely unpunished, van Dijk suffered an Anterior Cruciate Ligament injury, ruling him out for many months and on the back of that, the Reds odds for the Premier League title drifted markedly, especially with goalkeeper Alisson already out for another month or so with a shoulder injury.
Prior to the Aston Villa game, the Reds were relatively clear favourites in many peoples minds, now though you can get a very tempting 9/4 with bet365 on them regaining their title this season, with Manchester City once again listed as the 5/6 favourites.
The big movers in this market though have been Aston Villa who have come in from 2,500/1 at the start of the season to 66/1 now thanks to their four wins in four games since the start of this current campaign.
How bad is Van Dijk’s absence?
There is no doubt that the Dutchman’s long term absence is a big blow for Liverpool as his presence in the defence over the last couple of years has been the catalyst for Liverpools most successful spell in 30 years or more. However, if you have backed the Reds to win the title, then all may not be lost.
It is true that Van Dijk had been suffering from a drop off in form in the past few months and he had made a couple of telling mistakes in games. Joel Matip is a strong back up and alongside Joe Gomez, they will likely form the new central defensive pairing who will still have the protection of that Liverpool midfield in front of them.
Matip and Gomez, after an initially rocky start, played very well against Everton in the main and there is hope that they can form a useful partnership going forward. Or at least until January when it is expected Liverpool may make a move in the transfer window for another centre half.
However, what is notable also this season is that Manchester City’s form has also not been that impressive, Manchester United have also struggled, while Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham, who you would consider to be their main rivals, have also all dropped points.
With the likes of Everton and Aston Villa emerging too, we could actually have a very open season and in that case, you can’t really rule out Liverpool with their superb trio of attacking players able to cause havoc against any team.
Yes van Dijk’s absence is a blow for the Reds, but if you have backed them to win the title, I would not tear up your betting slip just yet. There’s still plenty of the season to go and Liverpool are as good as any pick still, to land that league title.
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