Before last Friday, it had been ten years since England last lost a qualifying game in a World Cup or European Championship qualifying tournament. However, after a lacklustre performances in Prague, Gareth Southgate’s team succumbed to a 2-1 defeat to the Czech Republic, when Harry Kane’s early penalty was cancelled out by Jakub Brabec’s equaliser just four minutes later and then debutant Zdenek Ondrasek clinched the win with a strike on 85 minutes for the home side.
The defeat, while a setback, is not a total disaster for Southgate’s team. Two more wins from any of the three remaining qualifying games would ensure England reach the Euro 2020 finals and with their next two games against the bottom two in the group, Bulgaria tonight and then Montenegro next month, before a trip to Kosovo, they should have ample opportunity to get the six points they need.
Tonight they face a Bulgaria side without a win in qualifying and without any win at all over the past year. The Bulgarians have lost four of their last five games, only ending that run on Friday with a 0-0 draw against Montenegro.
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Group A Standings
- England* – 12 Points (+14)
- Czech Rep – 12 Points (+2)
- Kosovo* – 8 Points (0)
- Montenegro – 3 Points (-10)
- Bulgaria – 3 Points (-6)
*Teams marked with as asterisk have played 5 games instead of 6. Goal Difference is displayed in brackets.
Group A Results from Friday
- Czech Republic 2-1 England
- Montenegro 0-0 Bulgaria
Group A Fixtures Remaining
Tonight
- Bulgaria v England
- Kosovo v Montenegro
Matchday 9 (14-16th Nov)
- England v Montenegro
- Czech Republic v Kosovo
Matchday 10 (17th – 19th Nov)
- Bulgaria v Czech Republic
- Kosovo v England
How Things Stand as per Qualifying from Group A
- England need two wins to be assured of qualifying from Group A. If they take seven points from the nine available, they are assured of winning the group.
- The Czech Republic need to win their game against Kosovo next month in order to ensure they qualify for the finals.
- Kosovo need to beat Montenegro tonight and then pick up wins against the Czech Republic and England in order to assure themselves of a place at Euro 2020.
- Depending on results for England, Czech Republic and Kosovo, there are many other permutations still possible for teams to qualify or win the group. For example, if England win tonight and Kosovo lose to Montenegro, England will qualify from the group.
- Bulgaria and Montenegro are already eliminated from qualifying.
England Team News
After the disappointing performance in Prague, England manager Gareth Southgate is expected to make a number of changes to the team that lost that game 2-1. Left back Danny Rose is suspended so Ben Chilwell is expected to come in for him, while at right back, Trent Alexander-Arnold is likely to replace Kieran Trippier.
Tyrone Mings of Aston Villa is widely expected to start in place of the struggling Michael Keane in another change in defence, while in midfield, Declan Rice could be dropped for Spurs midfielder Harry Winks and Ross Barkley, a scorer of two goals against Montenegro in September, could be set to replace Mason Mount.
Callum Wilson or Marcus Rashford are mooted to be in the running to replace Jadon Sancho in attack too as Southgate seeks to get a reaction from his squad to that defeat on Friday.
Projected Team – (4-3-3) – Pickford, Alexander-Arnold, Chilwell, Mings, Maguire, Winks, Henderson, Barkley, Rashford, Sterling, Kane.
Bulgaria Team News
Manager Krasimir Balakov has seen two defenders, Popov and Bozhikov, withdraw from the squad since the 0-0 draw with Montenegro on Friday, both due to injury and that means he will need to make changes for the game with England.
I expect Bulgaria to pack the midfield to try and deny England space and to hit the Three Lions on the counter attack when possible. Naturalised Brazilian duo Wanderson and Marcelinho will be key figures if this is Balakov’s main tactical approach.
Although Kraev is more a wide midfielder/winger, he may be asked to play the lone role up front, or he could be used wide with Ivanov used as the main attacking threat.
Projected Team – (4-5-1) – Iliev, Pashov, Dimitrov, Zanev, Nedyalkov, Kostadinov, Ivanov, Marcelinho, Malinov, Wanderson, Kraev
Bulgaria v England – Top Tips
I’d like to think that England’s loss in Prague was more a blip than an early indication that England are nowhere near as good as we hoped they were. Even if it isn’t, I think the Czech Republic are a far stronger and more capable team in all areas of the field than this Bulgarian side and as a result, I would expect England to come through this game relatively comfortably with a win.
England to win the game is a 1/4 shot at bet365 Sport which isn’t great odds, but you can get England to win 2-0 at 5/1 and a 3-0 win is a 6/1 shot and either of those options looks a good value bet, considering Bulgaria have not scored against England since 1999.
In terms of goalscorer, Harry Kane has netted a hat-trick against these opponents already this season and he has seven goals in five qualifying games and he is the 12/5 shot to get the opening goal in this game and I think that is the smart money bet.
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