Liverpool Win Sees Seismic Shift in Premier League Outright Odds

At the start of the season in the English Premier League, Manchester City were the clear favourites to win what would have been their fifth, and third in a row, Premier League title. Liverpool, although the Champions of Europe, were rated by most bookmakers as the clear second favourites, well clear of other teams in the title race, but still very much second to City.

However, after yesterday’s dramatic events at Anfield and the respective starts to the season that both teams have endured since August, those odds have changed drastically since and it is now Liverpool that are heavily odds on to win the Premier League title, having opened up an eight point gap over Leicester City and Chelsea who are second and third respectively, with Manchester City now in fourth and nine points adrift of Jurgen Klopp’s team.

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Liverpool’s 3-1 win at Anfield on Sunday was Manchester City’s third defeat of the season and means that City have now fallen nine points behind the Reds in the title race and are now a point adrift of Chelsea and Leicester above them in the table. Liverpool, in contrast, have dropped just two points from the 36 available (a 1-1 draw at Old Trafford against Manchester United).

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Premier League in Review So Far

12 games into the Premier League season and it already appears as if we have a four-horse race for the Premier League title and seemingly, the Champions League places.

Having dropped just two points over their first 12 games, despite a start that has seen them play seven of the top ten teams during that period, Liverpool sit well clear at the top. Their crucial game with Manchester City saw them emerge as 3-1 winners on Sunday thanks to goals from Fabinho, Salah and Mane, with Bernardo Silva offering a sole reply for City.

The Reds have played all of the teams in the top six, beating them all (three at home, two on the road) and their only dropped points came away at seventh placed Manchester United.

City meanwhile have lost to Norwich City, Wolves and now Liverpool, as well as drawing at Home to Tottenham and those results mean that they dropped to fourth in the table as wins for Chelsea (who beat Crystal Palace 2-0) and Leicester (who beat Arsenal by the same scoreline) saw them leapfrog City into the second and third spots in the table.

Chelsea and Leicester have dropped one fewer point than City to lie above them in the table and both these teams are in good runs of form, Chelsea have won their last six Premier League games, while Leicester have won all of their last four, their defeat coming prior to that being a last gasp loss at Anfield to Liverpool.

Outside of this elite group of four, the likes of Arsenal and Manchester United lie close, with Wolves rapid rise up the table seeing them move into eight. Sheffield United however are the surprise team here lying in 5^th after a superb start to the season which has seen them concede just 9 goals in their 12 games to lie in a Europa League qualifying position with almost a third of the season gone.

However, it is telling that there are ten points between the team lying 5^th in the table and the team lying at the bottom (Norwich City). However, there are nine points between third and fifth and eight points between first and second. The gap from top placed Liverpool to Sheff Utd and Arsenal in 5^th and 6^th is a massive 17 points.

The Next Few Games

Over the next month or so, it is a crucial period for all teams as we head into the busy Christmas period of games. For Liverpool, they have the demands of the Club World Cup to factor in too and it means that the Reds will have a very busy period of games through to January.

Top Four Fixtures through to January

Liverpool

• 23^rd November – Crystal Palace v Liverpool (EPL)
• 27^th November – Liverpool v Napoli (CL)
• 30^th November – Liverpool v Brighton (EPL)
• 4^th December – Liverpool v Everton (EPL)
• 7^th December – Bournemouth v Liverpool (EPL)
• 10^th December – Red Bull Salzburg v Liverpool (CL)
• 14^th December – Liverpool v Watford (EPL)
• 17^th December – Aston Villa v Liverpool (Carabao Cup Quarterfinal)
• 18^th December – Liverpool v Unknown Opponent (Club World Cup Semi Final)
• 21^st December – Potential Club World Cup Final or 3^rd Place Match
• 26^th December – Leicester City v Liverpool (EPL)
• 29^th December – Liverpool v Wolves (EPL)
• 2^nd January – Liverpool v Sheffield United (EPL)

13 Games (8 EPL, 1 Carabao Cup, 2 Champions League, 2 World Club Cup)

Liverpool will have to rearrange their away game with West Ham (originally to be played on the 21^st December) to a later date.

Leicester City

• 23^rd November – Brighton v Leicester City (EPL)
• 1^st December – Leicester City v Everton (EPL)
• 4^th December – Leicester City v Watford (EPL)
• 8^th December – Aston Villa v Leicester City (EPL)
• 14^th December – Leicester City v Norwich City (EPL)
• 18^th December – Everton v Leicester City (Carabao Cup Quarterfinal)
• 21^st December – Manchester City v Leicester City (EPL)
• 26^th December – Leicester City v Liverpool (EPL)
• 28^th December – West Ham v Leicester City (EPL)
• 1^st January – Newcastle v Leicester City (EPL)

10 Games (9 EPL, 1 Carabao Cup)

Chelsea

• 23^rd November – Manchester City v Chelsea (EPL)
• 27^th November – Valencia v Chelsea (CL)
• 30^th November – Chelsea v West Ham (EPL)
• 4^th December – Chelsea v Aston. Villa (EPL)
• 7^th December – Everton v Chelsea (EPL)
• 10^th December – Chelsea v Lille (CL)
• 14^th December – Chelsea v Bournemouth (EPL)
• 22^nd December – Tottenham v Chelsea (EPL)
• 26^th December – Chelsea v Southampton (EPL)
• 29^th December – Arsenal v Chelsea (EPL)
• 1^st January – Brighton v Chelsea (EPL)

11 Games (9 EPL, 2 Champions League)

Man City

• 23^rd November – Manchester City v Chelsea (EPL)
• 26^th November – Manchester City v Shakhtar Donetsk (CL)
• 30^th November – Newcastle United v Manchester City (EPL)
• 3^rd December – Burnley v Manchester City (EPL)
• 7^th December – Manchester City v Manchester United (EPL)
• 11^th December – Dinamo Zagreb v Manchester City (CL)
• 15^th December – Arsenal v Manchester City (EPL)
• 18^th December – Oxford United v Manchester City (Carabao Cup Quarterfinal)
• 21^st December – Manchester City v Leicester City (EPL)
• 27^th December – Wolves v Manchester City (EPL)
• 29^th December – Manchester City v Sheffield United (EPL)
• 1^st January – Manchester City v Everton (EPL)

12 Games (9 EPL, 2 Champions League, 1 Carabao Cup)

While it is clear Liverpool and Man City have the busier fixture list in this period, what is notable in terms of the Premier League is the quality of opponents each team will face over this crucial time.

Based on current league position and a team being part of the “Big Six” of Liverpool, Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham. Then their schedule compares thus:

• Games Against the “Big 6” – Liverpool – 0, Leicester – 2, Chelsea – 3, Man City – 3,
• Games Against top Half Teams – Liverpool – 3, Leicester – 2, Chelsea – 3, Man City – 7
• Games Against current Top 6 – Liverpool – 1, Leicester – 2, Chelsea – 2, Man City – 4

So while Liverpool may have more games and more travel to endure over the next few weeks, it looks like Manchester City have a much tougher selection of games and that Liverpool, in comparison to their title rivals, actually have the easiest set of games.

It is perhaps for this reason that Liverpool are now the 2/5 favourites to win the Premier League this year, with Manchester City now the 9/4 second favourites and Chelsea and Leicester both 33/1 chances. Anybody outside the top four is now rated at best as a 500/1 shot to win the title, with some of the bottom teams as high as 4,500/1 with bet365.