Is Another Three-Way Battle Likely At Hockenheim This Weekend?

Last time out in the Formula 1 season, a couple of incidents that saw the safety car deployed in the middle and latter stages of the British Grand Prix at Silverstone, ensured that there would be a real battle between three teams and drivers for the win with Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull cars all involved in a real scrap for the podium places.

In the end though, it was Sebastian Vettel who claimed a key victory ahead of Lewis Hamilton in second, the British driver doing well to finish there after a spin early in the race left him at the back of the pack of drivers. Ferrari’s flying Finn Kimi Raikkonen was third home ahead of Valtteri Bottas who edged out the Red Bull of Daniele Ricciardo for fourth.

A strong showing from Vettel and Ferrari meant that both took hold of the lead in their respective Championships as we can see from the latest standings below:

F1 Driver’s Championship Standings (after British Grand Prix)

• Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari) 171
• Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) 163
• Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari) 116
• Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull) 106
• Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes) 104
• Max Verstappen (Red Bull) 93

Beyond Verstappen, the next best driver is Nico Hulkenberg although he has amassed less than half of the total of points Verstappen has (42) and in truth the gulf in class between the cars of the top six drivers and the remaining teams remains huge.

F1 Constructor’s Championship Standings

• Ferrari – 287
• Mercedes – 267
• Red Bull – 199
• Renault – 70
• Haas Ferrari – 51
• Force India – 49
• McLaren – 48
• Toro Rosso – 19
• Sauber – 16
• Williams – 4

As you can see, Ferrari’s lead over Mercedes is just 20 points heading into what the Germany company would consider is their home race of the season and while Red Bull are some 68 points behind Mercedes in second place, improved performance in recent races suggest that the team could claw back at least some of that gap between themselves and the top two over the remainder of the season.

Formula 1 Season

We are now ten races into the Formula 1 season and there are just two races remaining, this coming weekend in Germany and then the following weekend in Hungary, before we reach the mid-season point and the drivers have a month’s break before the season resumes in Belgium on the 24^th-26^th August.

The second half of the season will see nine races in total starting in Belgium and then moving to Italy, Singapore, Russia, Japan, United States, Mexico, Brazil and then finally Abu Dhabi for the final race of the season on the 23^rd – 25^th November.

What are the bookmakers odds for the German Grand Prix?

As you would expect, the bookies only feel that one from six drivers can realistically win the race in Germany this coming weekend with any driver outside the top six listed below being a 1000/1 shot or greater to win the race. The odds are courtesy of bet365 Sport and were correct as of 12pm on Tuesday 17^th July.

Current odds:

• Lewis Hamilton – 11/8
• Sebastian Vettel – 13/8
• Valtteri Bottas – 15/2
• Max Verstappen – 9/1
• Kimi Raikkonen – 10/1
• Daniel Ricciardo – 10/1
• 1000/1 bar

Before we can pick our winner from that small selection of drivers, I think that we need to analyse how the Hockenheim track will play out over the weekend and whether its key features will suit one team moreso than the other.

Hockenheim Review

After complaints that the original circuit was too long, the famous Hockenheim circuit was redesigned in 1992 with one of the big new features being the corner complex at turns 2, 3 and 4 followed by the long ‘parabolika’ curve which leads into a hairpin at corner six. The newer track is still quick, with the current lap record held by Kimi Raikkonen at 1.13.780 which was set way back in 2004 when the Finn was driving for McLaren.

However, the new changes, designed by Hermann Tilke, have not been universally welcomed with a number of team leaders and past and present F1 drivers expressing their preference for the longer and older circuit.

The race is back on the calendar after being missing for two years and of course, the home fans will be cheering Sebastian Vettel on in the hope the German secures another victory for Ferrari, while Mercedes will feel what is effectively a ‘home’ race for them may give their drivers an advantage.

However, the newer design of the track means that cars will be accelerating and decelerating more frequently than on the older design and that means those cars with good balance on their tyres, that don’t suffer excess tyre wear and which have strong acceleration, should prevail here. That seems to favour Mercedes slightly, who are less hard on their tyres than Ferrari, who seem to have the better of the two teams when it comes to straight line speed.

Our Tips for the Race

There’s no doubt that over the last few weeks we have seen a shift in performance and that at the moment, Ferrari seem to be the quickest and most competitive car on the track, although the gap they hold over Mercedes is slight and seems to be most evident on quicker tracks.

Mercedes can feel that tactically, they have not performed at their best over the last few races but the team has been dogged by a number of unusual (for them) mechanical issues too and it does seem that the car doesn’t match the power of the Ferrari’s at present.

Red Bull are just behind Mercedes and are making ground on the top two teams nicely, although to secure a win does require the top drivers from Ferrari and Mercedes to make a mistake to allow either Verstappen or Riccardo claim the win.

Given how Hockenheim is set up, I think we are set for a very close race and I think how the teams perform in qualifying is likely to be crucial to their chances of success this weekend.

For the winner, we are going to back Sebastian Vettel (13/8) to get the job done on home soil. It was a big win he achieved in Great Britain a couple of weekends ago and if he can win on home soil, he’ll take a stranglehold at the top of the Driver’s Championship and in truth, given he has the better car at the moment and is on home soil, you have to fancy him to do it.