The past two years have been a rollercoaster of emotions for Egypt’s national hero, Mohamed Salah. The Liverpool winger suffered the agony of an injury in the Champions League Final in Madrid at the end of a stunning first full season for Liverpool. Not only did the Reds lose that game but Salah only just recovered in time to play a bit part for Egypt at the World Cup Finals in Russia that summer.
This year, Salah’s scoring exploits for Liverpool may have been slightly fewer, but he still finished as joint top goalscorer in the Premier League and gained revenge for his Champions League final misery a year before with a goalscoring return in Liverpool’s win over Tottenham in this year’s final in Madrid a few weeks ago.
Now the Egyptian faces arguably his most toughest task to date; being the focal point for the host nation Egypt in this summer’s African Cup of Nations tournament (AFCON) which gets underway in Cairo this coming weekend.
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What are Egypt’s Chances of winning the African Cup of Nations?
With Mo Salah in their squad, Egypt will feel they have the player that can be a matchwinner in his own right, but that would overlook the fact that Egypt are also the most decorated team in this tournament’s history, winning it a total of seven times, two more than the next best team (Cameroon).
They also performed well in the 2017 finals, when they lost in the final to Cameroon and now on home soil and with the nucleus of that squad maintained, Egypt should be in great shape to perform very well in front of their own fans.
The team has a number of players familiar to English fans with Ahmed El Mohamady (Aston Villa), Mohamed El Neny (Arsenal) and Ahmed Hegazi (West Brom) also plying their trade in England alongside Salah.
The biggest change will be in goal where veteran Esse El Hadary, who played in last summer’s World Cup aged 45, has now retired with Ahmed El Shenawy likely to replace him.
Egypt’s talents in midfield are crucial with the likes of Ali Ghazal, Trezeguet, Tarek Hamed and Walid Soliman likely to play crucial roles alongside El Neny.
Salah though will be the man expected to produce the goal sas his 39 in 63 caps show, he has scored more than 32 goals more for his country than any other player in the squad and as such, his goals and performances will be vital if Egypt are going to win the tournament.
Who are Egypt’s Group and Potential Knockout Phase Opponents?
Egypt open their campaign with three games in the capital Cairo, starting on the 21st June against Zimbabwe and then they are in action five days later on the 26th June against DR Congo. They then finish off their group stage with another game in Cairo against Uganda. In truth, these are three games that Egypt should be expecting to win relatively comfortably.
If they top the group then a match in the Round of 16 against a third-place team in either Group C, D or E will be their next task which could mean a game against most likely, Angola, South Africa or Kenya.
After that a quarterfinal against Nigeria or Guinea could be the most likely game and if they win that then a semifinal against Tunisia or Senegal looks the most likely, which would leave a final against the likes of Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Morocco or Ghana.
Of course, the tournament may not pan out that way as usually there is a surprise or two along the way, but even so, it looks like being relatively plain sailing for Egypt, until the semifinals, especially if they can win that opening group.
Who are Egypt’s main opposition?
In the group phase, DR Congo will likely be Egypt’s main threat to winning the group. The team have some talented players, such as West Ham’s Arthur Masuaku, Chancel Mbemba of FC Porto, Yannick Bolasie of Anderlecht and Cedric Bakambu of Beijing Guoan. Middlesbrough fans will also see striker Britt Assombalonga named in the squad though he will likely be used from the bench.
Uganda and Zimbabwe should not provide any real test to either of the top two in this group and it will likely be the outcome of the game between the two that decides who tops the table in Group A.
Once you get into the knockout phase then things do get tougher. I don’t think Nigeria are anywhere near as strong as they once were and while they look defensively solid, I am not sure they have the attacking threat to worry the top sides in this tournament and I can see Egypt being strong enough to beat the Super Eagles.
The semifinal against, most likely, Tunisia or Senegal looks the biggest test on paper for me as outside of Egypt these two teams are the best teams in the tournament, along with the Ivory Coast and Ghana, one of whom could be waiting in the final. These are the games where home advantage could prove vital, especially if Egypt can ensure their progress remains at the Cairo International Stadium, which would be packed to the 74,100 capacity with home supporters for their games.
Personally, I think they will beat Tunisia to reach the final where they will face Ghana and I would still expect Egypt to beat a talented Ghanaian side on home soil to take the AFCON title.
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